Ever felt guilty...?

I got a rather apologetic email from The allotment lady yesterday. She apparently has been very sick with a coughing flu (something which the woman I work with has been suffering from - I've offered a few times to remove her lungs with a cargo hook to put her out of her misery, the coughing is so harsh) and offered a sincere apology.


She also told me I can only queue for 2 plots at once. Due to the demand for the Martin's Wood plot being around 3 years, she's put me on the Walkern road waiting list (so numbers 2 and 3) first. I'm 11th in line there.

What does that actually mean though? if it only has 11 plots that could be 11  years at a churn of 1 per year.... let's have a look:


assuming one plot per person:


Almond Hill - 75 plots = 17.33% of the plot holders need to churn before I get one
Walkern Road - 69 plots = 15.94% of the plot holders need to churn before I get one.


What's a reasonable churn rate, to give me some indication of when I might be successful? I mean, you'd assume it's fairly slow churn? Is 5% a reasonable assumption? That means 3 years....


10% sounds high but would mean around 18 months or so..... would 10% of people churn through that place? I guess the highest churn rate would be new plot holders - I'd imagine some people have had their plots for many many years.... yet some try it for a year then give up.


Anyway, food for thought on this chilly Friday.


Still a ray of hope from the lovely lady at the Allotment office.